Hurricane forecasters then use their experience and judgment to decide how to use the individual and ensemble model guidance to produce the best possible forecast. The TAFB is comprised of a branch chief, five lead forecasters, 10 forecasters, and two meteorological interns. They produce 57 graphic products and 48 text products each day. The HSU also produces the final public forecast products.
Once a storm forms, a complete suite of advisory products , including text advisories and graphical forecast products, is issued every 6 hours. Additional products are issued more frequently when a possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
When a threat is imminent, NHC products provide the estimated location for a tropical cyclone each hour. A preliminary tropical cyclone report TRC is generated after the conclusion of each tropical cyclone, and monthly tropical weather summaries are issued by the HSU at the end of each month during the hurricane season.
In total, the HSU issues an average of full advisory packages per year. The HSU also provides briefings on active tropical cyclones to emergency managers and the media. It is the timely and reliable dissemination of these forecast and warning products that allows members of the public and their local emergency managers to make plans to secure their property and take other necessary measures to protect themselves in the days and hours prior to a hurricane or Source NOAA-NHC.
The HSU also cooperates with Mexican, Central American, and Caribbean meteorological services to provide watch and warning recommendations. They work to serve as a "bridge" between NHC forecasters and local emergency managers dealing with a tropical cyclone threat. Tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is important when a tropical cyclone landfall is imminent.
The NHC cannot produce forecasts tailored to the conditions at every location on the coast, so it is important to contact your local WFO for current and predicted local effects of a hurricane. Information for local WFOs is provided to local and state emergency management, as well as the media. Emergency managers are the final decision makers in the forecast process. Local NWS forecast offices monitor and forecast severe weather for their counties of responsibility.
These offices issue warnings when hazardous weather develops. What we do: SPC forecasters, NWS forecasters, NSSL researchers and other groups work together to develop and evaluate the best thunderstorm forecasting tools, including computer forecast models and new forecasting techniques. Meteorologists often rely on massive computer programs called numerical weather prediction models to help them decide if conditions will be right for the development of thunderstorms.
These models are designed to calculate what the atmosphere will do at certain points over a large area, from the Earth's surface to the top of the atmosphere. Data is gathered from weather balloons launched around the globe twice each day, in addition to measurements from satellites, aircraft, ships, temperature profilers and surface weather stations. The models start with these current weather observations and attempt to predict future weather using physics and dynamics to mathematically describe the atmosphere's behavior.
The predictions are usually output in text and graphics mostly maps. Computer models work great if the weather follows the rules we have set. When the weather breaks the rules, the predictions have trouble too. To create these forecasts, meteorologists combine observations from atmospheric sensors, weather balloons, radar, satellites and aircraft monitoring with complex computer models to predict when a storm will form, where it will strike and how severe it will be.
The SPC is primarily concerned with forecasting thunderstorms and tornadoes in the continental United States. At the core of its work is climatology, the study of climates and how they change. A basic understanding of how weather works relies on the historical record, Carbin said. In the middle and southern United States, the greatest storm risk occurs in spring and early summer. At that time, warm, moist air left over from winter cyclones meets winds from the jet stream, creating high winds, tornadoes and dangerous hail, Carbin said.
With this knowledge in hand, forecasters can pay close attention to storm systems at this time of year. Storm prediction starts with measuring the current weather conditions, such as air temperature, air pressure and wind speed.
Every airport in the country collects this information every five minutes, Carbin said. Meteorologists combine these measurements with information from weather balloons launched to measure conditions at various heights in the atmosphere and geostationary satellites that sense moisture in the atmosphere and reveal the locations of clouds.
All of the weather and satellite data is fed into numerical simulations run on supercomputers , which crunch the numbers and spit out a model of the atmosphere's behavior. Once a storm is brewing, scientists begin monitoring it using radar.
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